Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.51 – 175.77

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 83.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.5 ±11.6

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 28.29Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 72.98Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 29.24Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.8 ±9.8

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 104.75Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 70.44Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 0.58Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8051, 9036, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 9036, 9442

Auto

29.7 24%

Teleop

59.5 48%

Endgame

33.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 4512, 1294

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 4512, 1294

Auto

21.4 13%

Teleop

84.7 50%

Endgame

62.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score175.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.3
Score range: 110–197
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.5Season APEX633.8

29.7Auto21.4

59.5Teleop84.7

33.8Endgame62.7

46Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	42
teleop	70	177
endgame	33	45
foul	75	5
total	205	269

Result

Final score

205 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 83.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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