Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.24 – 89.47

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.9 ±13.3

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 25.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -4.8Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 67.3Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±11.7

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -2.51Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 44.65Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 47.33Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3268, 2980, 2930

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3268, 2980, 2930

Auto

29.9 34%

Teleop

25.1 29%

Endgame

32.2 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3219, 1778, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3219, 1778, 488

Auto

16.7 19%

Teleop

53.4 61%

Endgame

17.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.2pts

Blue projected score89.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.2
Score range: 66–111
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.9Season APEX344.4

29.9Auto16.7

25.1Teleop53.4

32.2Endgame17.6

49Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	49	70
endgame	17	61
foul	30	0
total	124	151

Result

Final score

124 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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