Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.57 – 53.87

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.6 ±12.7

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 35.62Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 64.7Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -4.75Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.5 ±13.3

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 21.83Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 37.15Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -5.11Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3786, 2930, 4579

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3786, 2930, 4579

Auto

12.0 14%

Teleop

41.7 49%

Endgame

31.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3268, 3070, 3219

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3268, 3070, 3219

Auto

17.6 32%

Teleop

23.7 43%

Endgame

14.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score53.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 32–118
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.6Season APEX151.5

12Auto17.6

41.7Teleop23.7

31.1Endgame14

29Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	67	35
endgame	35	34
foul	5	0
total	126	91

Result

Final score

126 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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