Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.01 – 93.41

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.9 ±11

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 99.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 27.33Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -1.48Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.1 ±11.7

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -11.53Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 64.36Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 40.58Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 8051, 5941

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10079, 8051, 5941

Auto

32.3 26%

Teleop

69.3 55%

Endgame

24.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2980, 4512, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2980, 4512, 488

Auto

16.6 19%

Teleop

42.1 49%

Endgame

26.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125pts

Blue projected score93.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: 72–146
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.9Season APEX363.1

32.3Auto16.6

69.3Teleop42.1

24.3Endgame26.9

59Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	76	78
endgame	60	71
foul	0	5
total	152	179

Result

Final score

152 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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