Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.19 – 238.01

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.7 ±11.6

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -6.18Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 55.27Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 28.1Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512.9 ±10.5

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 84.3Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 47.89Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 105.82Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5941, 1778, 2903

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5941, 1778, 2903

Auto

15.1 20%

Teleop

46.3 61%

Endgame

14.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4512, 7627, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

238 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 7627, 4915

Auto

36.6 16%

Teleop

139.7 59%

Endgame

58.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.2pts

Blue projected score238pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.8
Score range: 52–263
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.7Season APEX512.9

15.1Auto36.6

46.3Teleop139.7

14.5Endgame58.5

10Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	44
teleop	7	91
endgame	8	33
foul	15	0
total	42	168

Result

Final score

42 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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