Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.85 – 68.34

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.2 ±12.2

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 11.05Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 54.64Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -15.84Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.4 ±12.2

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 23.47Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 13.49Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 31.38Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4131, 4682, 2980

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4131, 4682, 2980

Auto

13.2 28%

Teleop

25.7 54%

Endgame

8.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 3268, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 3268, 3786

Auto

25.9 40%

Teleop

18.7 29%

Endgame

19.6 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.8pts

Blue projected score68.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 28–90
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.2Season APEX297.4

13.2Auto25.9

25.7Teleop18.7

8.5Endgame19.6

35Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	31	58
endgame	28	42
foul	0	0
total	73	124

Result

Final score

73 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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