Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.52 – 83.14

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.4 ±11.6

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 13.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 39.96Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 74.68Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±11.7

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 9.06Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 88.46Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -14.38Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4180, 488, 9036

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 488, 9036

Auto

21.1 17%

Teleop

73.4 60%

Endgame

27.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 4915, 4579

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 4915, 4579

Auto

21.1 26%

Teleop

48.4 60%

Endgame

11.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.5pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.4
Score range: 61–151
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.4Season APEX338.6

21.1Auto21.1

73.4Teleop48.4

27.8Endgame11.6

6Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	14
teleop	59	131
endgame	32	25
foul	5	5
total	127	175

Result

Final score

127 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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