Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.23 – 142

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.1 ±10.5

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 115.71Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 0.97Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 69.55Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±11.6

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 43.17Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 37.35Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 61.48Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4089, 5941, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4089, 5941, 4512

Auto

38.6 21%

Teleop

99.4 54%

Endgame

44.5 24%

Strengths

· 4089 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1778, 1899, 2930

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1778, 1899, 2930

Auto

11.4 8%

Teleop

83.3 61%

Endgame

41.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.2pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.2
Score range: 121–207
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.1Season APEX342.2

38.6Auto11.4

99.4Teleop83.3

44.5Endgame41.4

30Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	40
teleop	82	92
endgame	61	39
foul	0	0
total	159	171

Result

Final score

159 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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