Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.05 – 19.48

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.8 ±10.5

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 85.2Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 11.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 24.19Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.6 ±12.7

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 5.24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 29.51Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -15.27Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 4180, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4915, 4180, 8051

Auto

24.8 20%

Teleop

77.0 62%

Endgame

22.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 3786, 2980

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 3786, 2980

Auto

4.9 48%

Teleop

-11.7 0%

Endgame

17.0 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score19.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.6
Score range: -2–142
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.8Season APEX187.6

24.8Auto4.9

77Teleop-11.7

22.4Endgame17

36Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	20
teleop	86	25
endgame	25	9
foul	0	0
total	142	54

Result

Final score

142 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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