Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.12 – 85.34

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309 ±11.6

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 72.74Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 35.31Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 65.07Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213 ±11.6

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 52.2Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 35.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -1.95Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4512, 9442, 2930

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 9442, 2930

Auto

28.5 17%

Teleop

96.8 57%

Endgame

44.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4682, 488, 5941

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4682, 488, 5941

Auto

17.4 21%

Teleop

48.3 59%

Endgame

16.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.1pts

Blue projected score85.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.8
Score range: 64–194
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309Season APEX213

28.5Auto17.4

96.8Teleop48.3

44.9Endgame16.8

0Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	36	67
endgame	62	31
foul	25	0
total	145	124

Result

Final score

145 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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