Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.59 – 165.54

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±12.2

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 34.58Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 5.1Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 31.91Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401 ±11.1

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 56.49Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 106.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 2.39Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 488, 3826, 3268

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 488, 3826, 3268

Auto

27.1 39%

Teleop

29.9 43%

Endgame

12.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2930, 4089, 4180

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 4089, 4180

Auto

29.9 18%

Teleop

91.3 56%

Endgame

41.2 25%

Strengths

· 4089 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.6pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.9
Score range: 51–187
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.8Season APEX401

27.1Auto29.9

29.9Teleop91.3

12.6Endgame41.2

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	50
teleop	13	129
endgame	4	66
foul	5	0
total	49	245

Result

Final score

49 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 51 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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