Qualification · Qualification 39
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
26.03 – 138.31
20%80%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
44 – 38
Prediction missed · off by 59.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.5 ±12.7
Season APEX 36Event APEX -4.91Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 87.3Event APEX -1.14Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 32.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±11.6
Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 46.76Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 42.33Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 49.22Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5941, 4173, 3786
9
/ 100 compatProjected
26 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 5941, 4173, 3786
Auto
-5.0 0%
Teleop
3.2 16%
Endgame
21.4 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3070, 4131, 9442
70
/ 100 compatProjected
138.3 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 3070, 4131, 9442
Auto
28.0 21%
Teleop
72.9 54%
Endgame
33.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 1.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score26pts
Blue projected score138.3pts
Red win probability20%
Event bonus sample152alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 26%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -112.3
- Score range
- 5–159
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
209.5Season APEX187.2
-5Auto28
3.2Teleop72.9
21.4Endgame33.5
23Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 13 |
| teleop | 11 | 20 |
| endgame | 13 | 0 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 44 | 38 |
Result
Final score
44 – 38
Prediction missed · off by 59.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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