Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.85 – 103.85

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.2 ±11

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 69.98Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 51.1Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -6.23Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.4 ±12.2

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 75.45Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -12.17Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 40.57Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 7627, 1294

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10079, 7627, 1294

Auto

36.1 37%

Teleop

43.5 44%

Endgame

18.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9036, 2980, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9036, 2980, 1778

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

53.1 57%

Endgame

21.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.9pts

Blue projected score103.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11
Score range: 83–136
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.2Season APEX339.4

36.1Auto18.2

43.5Teleop53.1

18.3Endgame21.6

67Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	20
teleop	112	45
endgame	47	49
foul	0	0
total	200	114

Result

Final score

200 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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