Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 141.37

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.6 ±13.3

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -22.34Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 14.61Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -24.97Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±11.6

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 61.65Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 45.18Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 34.54Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3219, 2903, 4579

/ 100 compat

Projected

-32.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3219, 2903, 4579

Auto

4.1 0%

Teleop

-21.1 56%

Endgame

-20.9 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4512, 4682, 1899

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 4682, 1899

Auto

11.6 8%

Teleop

91.6 61%

Endgame

46.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-32.7pts

Blue projected score141.4pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.4
Score range: -21–162
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.6Season APEX332.5

4.1Auto11.6

-21.1Teleop91.6

-20.9Endgame46

81Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	23
teleop	6	143
endgame	0	38
foul	5	15
total	21	219

Result

Final score

21 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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