Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.76 – 55.89

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±11.2

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 96.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -11.56Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 32.79Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.8 ±12.7

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 5.11Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 2.98Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 47.8Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4089, 1294, 3268

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4089, 1294, 3268

Auto

32.5 32%

Teleop

46.9 46%

Endgame

21.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4173, 4180, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4173, 4180, 9442

Auto

10.8 19%

Teleop

27.6 48%

Endgame

18.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.8pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.9
Score range: 35–139
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.5Season APEX195.8

32.5Auto10.8

46.9Teleop27.6

21.5Endgame18.9

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	9
teleop	78	13
endgame	27	15
foul	0	0
total	167	37

Result

Final score

167 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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