Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 110.47

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 71.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±13.3

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -39.57Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -27.16Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 38.61Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.7 ±12.1

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 65.94Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -0.8Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 45.33Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3219, 2980, 7627

/ 100 compat

Projected

-28.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3219, 2980, 7627

Auto

13.8 0%

Teleop

-38.0 100%

Endgame

-12.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9036, 3826, 4682

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9036, 3826, 4682

Auto

21.9 21%

Teleop

60.5 57%

Endgame

24.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-28.1pts

Blue projected score110.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.5
Score range: -21–131
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.8Season APEX192.7

13.8Auto21.9

-38Teleop60.5

-12.3Endgame24.1

82Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	27
teleop	37	87
endgame	25	42
foul	15	0
total	97	156

Result

Final score

97 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 71.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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