Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.38 – 149.14

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.5 ±11.1

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 105.24Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 37.31Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 43.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373 ±11.1

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 51.38Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -5.01Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 102.77Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 3681, 1899

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 3681, 1899

Auto

18.7 10%

Teleop

100.5 54%

Endgame

67.4 36%

Strengths

· 2910 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2930, 5941, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 5941, 4915

Auto

29.3 19%

Teleop

93.0 60%

Endgame

31.7 21%

Strengths

· 4915 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.4pts

Blue projected score149.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.2
Score range: 129–206
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 112.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.5Season APEX373

18.7Auto29.3

100.5Teleop93

67.4Endgame31.7

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	103	103
endgame	62	49
foul	0	0
total	183	170

Result

Final score

183 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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