Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.75 – 97.25

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.1 ±11

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 55.97Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 46.95Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -1.17Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.1 ±11.7

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -14.64Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 56.87Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 55.02Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 4512, 2903

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10079, 4512, 2903

Auto

25.2 25%

Teleop

50.2 50%

Endgame

24.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4579, 1778, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4579, 1778, 4131

Auto

13.3 16%

Teleop

56.9 68%

Endgame

13.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.8pts

Blue projected score97.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.5
Score range: 77–122
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.1Season APEX317.1

25.2Auto13.3

50.2Teleop56.9

24.7Endgame13.1

63Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	6
teleop	136	43
endgame	22	0
foul	0	5
total	197	54

Result

Final score

197 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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