Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.81 – 103.8

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.1 ±11.6

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -17.46Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 45.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 58.04Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.1 ±11.6

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 30.74Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 33.15Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 39.91Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 3786, 9036

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 3786, 9036

Auto

-1.9 0%

Teleop

50.6 61%

Endgame

34.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 7627, 4682

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 7627, 4682

Auto

27.6 30%

Teleop

28.6 31%

Endgame

35.4 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.8pts

Blue projected score103.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18
Score range: 66–124
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 111.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.1Season APEX276.1

-1.9Auto27.6

50.6Teleop28.6

34.2Endgame35.4

73Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	34
teleop	30	81
endgame	19	20
foul	50	0
total	122	135

Result

Final score

122 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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