Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.48 – 185.64

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±11.1

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 22.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 57.17Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 124.02Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.3 ±10.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 111.28Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 38.76Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 35.6Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3681, 4682, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3681, 4682, 4089

Auto

40.5 20%

Teleop

110.4 55%

Endgame

48.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 3070, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 3070, 8051

Auto

30.4 17%

Teleop

93.5 51%

Endgame

57.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.5pts

Blue projected score185.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.8
Score range: 161–228
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.2Season APEX558.3

40.5Auto30.4

110.4Teleop93.5

48.1Endgame57.7

11Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	30
teleop	110	52
endgame	62	79
foul	0	0
total	200	161

Result

Final score

200 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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