Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.15 – 89.43

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.9 ±12.7

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 32.67Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 41.38Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -4.9Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.7 ±11.7

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 7.26Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -33.52Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 115.69Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3268, 3681, 3826

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3268, 3681, 3826

Auto

19.8 30%

Teleop

27.1 41%

Endgame

18.8 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5941, 3219, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5941, 3219, 2522

Auto

24.8 29%

Teleop

35.1 41%

Endgame

24.8 29%

Strengths

· 2522 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.2pts

Blue projected score89.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.3
Score range: 49–109
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.9Season APEX348.7

19.8Auto24.8

27.1Teleop35.1

18.8Endgame24.8

0Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	18	4
endgame	11	5
foul	0	0
total	59	23

Result

Final score

59 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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