Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.36 – 119.72

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.1 ±12.7

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -14.67Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 47.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -4.45Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±11.6

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 42.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 46.59Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 30.34Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2980, 1899, 2903

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2980, 1899, 2903

Auto

11.2 49%

Teleop

9.3 40%

Endgame

2.5 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9317, 2930, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9317, 2930, 488

Auto

29.2 25%

Teleop

61.5 53%

Endgame

26.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.4pts

Blue projected score119.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.4
Score range: 8–140
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.1Season APEX283

11.2Auto29.2

9.3Teleop61.5

2.5Endgame26.2

20Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	39
teleop	18	54
endgame	10	21
foul	0	0
total	39	114

Result

Final score

39 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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