Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.91 – 152.45

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 76.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.5 ±11.7

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 39.98Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX -5.63Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 39.56Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.7 ±10.5

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 54.08Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 96.4Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 1.97Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4512, 4173, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 4173, 1778

Auto

10.1 13%

Teleop

45.0 59%

Endgame

20.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4131, 2910, 4180

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4131, 2910, 4180

Auto

22.2 15%

Teleop

69.9 48%

Endgame

54.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.9pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.5
Score range: 55–171
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 107.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.5Season APEX522.7

10.1Auto22.2

45Teleop69.9

20.8Endgame54.8

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	113	139
endgame	55	46
foul	0	0
total	180	200

Result

Final score

180 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 76.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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