Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.66 – 118.14

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 2.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252 ±11.6

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 29.38Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 5.32Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 43.96Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.5 ±11.2

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 76.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -7.52Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 49.6Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 488, 2903, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 488, 2903, 3786

Auto

3.2 5%

Teleop

48.0 74%

Endgame

13.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4089, 2980, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4089, 2980, 10079

Auto

45.0 39%

Teleop

55.2 47%

Endgame

16.5 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.7pts

Blue projected score118.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 60–137
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 105.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252Season APEX490.5

3.2Auto45

48Teleop55.2

13.8Endgame16.5

0Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	31	47
endgame	21	26
foul	0	15
total	75	116

Result

Final score

75 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 2.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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