Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 15.98

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162 ±12.7

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 25.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -6.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -32.98Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±12.2

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 46.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 13.09Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -43.73Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7627, 4180, 4579

/ 100 compat

Projected

-13.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7627, 4180, 4579

Auto

14.3 0%

Teleop

-45.1 100%

Endgame

1.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1899, 8051, 3219

/ 100 compat

Projected

16 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1899, 8051, 3219

Auto

7.0 34%

Teleop

8.4 41%

Endgame

4.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-13.7pts

Blue projected score16pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16
Score range: -19–35
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 106.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162Season APEX280

14.3Auto7

-45.1Teleop8.4

1.6Endgame4.9

77Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	23	45
endgame	4	16
foul	15	0
total	55	73

Result

Final score

55 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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