Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.91 – 89.42

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 144.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.3 ±10.5

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX -0.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 64.29Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 0.31Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±11

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 25.9Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 32.61Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 30.91Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9442, 2910, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9442, 2910, 1778

Auto

32.4 62%

Teleop

9.1 17%

Endgame

10.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4131, 2930, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4131, 2930, 4512

Auto

22.9 26%

Teleop

59.9 68%

Endgame

5.6 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.9pts

Blue projected score89.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.5
Score range: 46–107
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.3Season APEX354.9

32.4Auto22.9

9.1Teleop59.9

10.9Endgame5.6

41Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	145	101
endgame	89	57
foul	0	5
total	254	188

Result

Final score

254 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 144.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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