Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.74 – 67.96

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.1 ±12.1

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 50.23Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 65.51Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 20Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.7 ±13.3

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 27.3Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 0.84Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 39.82Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3070, 9036, 5941

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3070, 9036, 5941

Auto

17.0 13%

Teleop

62.8 47%

Endgame

52.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2903, 4173, 3268

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 4173, 3268

Auto

16.5 26%

Teleop

28.1 43%

Endgame

20.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.7pts

Blue projected score68pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.8
Score range: 50–154
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.1Season APEX201.7

17Auto16.5

62.8Teleop28.1

52.6Endgame20.1

86Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	46	12
endgame	39	10
foul	0	5
total	106	44

Result

Final score

106 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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