Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.73 – 137.29

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.1 ±11.2

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 20.9Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 90.97Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -22.14Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.3 ±11.1

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -0.84Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 40.95Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 97.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2980, 4915, 1294

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2980, 4915, 1294

Auto

21.9 25%

Teleop

55.9 63%

Endgame

11.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4180, 9317, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 9317, 4089

Auto

25.8 19%

Teleop

54.8 40%

Endgame

55.4 41%

Strengths

· 4089 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.7pts

Blue projected score137.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.6
Score range: 71–156
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.1Season APEX421.3

21.9Auto25.8

55.9Teleop54.8

11.5Endgame55.4

150Consistency167

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	38
teleop	6	43
endgame	1	15
foul	0	0
total	18	96

Result

Final score

18 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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