Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.78 – 118.21

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.1 ±11

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 32.52Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 68.56Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 16.7Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.2 ±11.7

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -7.22Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 49.99Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 75.44Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1899, 10079, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1899, 10079, 4131

Auto

16.8 15%

Teleop

82.4 72%

Endgame

15.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4579, 4682, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4579, 4682, 2910

Auto

12.0 11%

Teleop

46.3 41%

Endgame

55.8 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.8pts

Blue projected score118.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.4
Score range: 99–137
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.1Season APEX469.2

16.8Auto12

82.4Teleop46.3

15.2Endgame55.8

49Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	15
teleop	71	22
endgame	20	18
foul	0	5
total	130	60

Result

Final score

130 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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