Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.7 – 162.19

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.5 ±12.7

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 41.23Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 47.25Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -13.78Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 537 ±10.5

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 96.17Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 45.85Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 20.17Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2930, 3681, 3219

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 3681, 3219

Auto

10.9 15%

Teleop

55.0 75%

Endgame

7.6 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2522, 3786, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2522, 3786, 4512

Auto

31.3 21%

Teleop

64.4 42%

Endgame

56.5 37%

Strengths

· 2522 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.7pts

Blue projected score162.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.5
Score range: 56–181
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.5Season APEX537

10.9Auto31.3

55Teleop64.4

7.6Endgame56.5

76Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	28	124
endgame	13	60
foul	0	0
total	55	198

Result

Final score

55 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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