Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
65.18 – 108.5
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
103 – 90
Prediction missed · off by 28.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.1 ±12.7
Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 51.84Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 38.2Event APEX -7.63Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 20.97Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 18.93Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 36Event APEX 8.04Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 81.53Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9036, 4579, 9317
46
/ 100 compatProjected
65.2 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 9036, 4579, 9317
Auto
2.1 3%
Teleop
47.0 69%
Endgame
19.5 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2980, 5941, 2910
64
/ 100 compatProjected
108.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 2980, 5941, 2910
Auto
22.6 24%
Teleop
32.6 34%
Endgame
40.0 42%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score65.2pts
Blue projected score108.5pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample152alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -43.3
- Score range
- 45–129
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
225.1Season APEX468.1
2.1Auto22.6
47Teleop32.6
19.5Endgame40
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 21 |
| teleop | 50 | 32 |
| endgame | 25 | 37 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 103 | 90 |
Result
Final score
103 – 90
Prediction missed · off by 28.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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