Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.23 – 110.28

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±12.7

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 34.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 49.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -17.32Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.2 ±11

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 32.9Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 7.92Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 69.46Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9442, 3786, 3219

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9442, 3786, 3219

Auto

8.4 14%

Teleop

21.1 35%

Endgame

31.6 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3681, 1778, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3681, 1778, 10079

Auto

15.8 15%

Teleop

63.1 60%

Endgame

26.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.2pts

Blue projected score110.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43
Score range: 46–131
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.9Season APEX425.2

8.4Auto15.8

21.1Teleop63.1

31.6Endgame26.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	35
teleop	10	74
endgame	3	7
foul	0	10
total	19	126

Result

Final score

19 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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