Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
102.29 – 130.73
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
99 – 123
Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.1 ±11.6
Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 37.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 38.63Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 25.96Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±10.5
Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 82.99Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 36.73Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 11.01Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3826, 2930, 8051
64
/ 100 compatProjected
102.3 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 3826, 2930, 8051
Auto
19.2 18%
Teleop
62.0 58%
Endgame
26.0 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4915, 2903, 4131
66
/ 100 compatProjected
130.7 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 4915, 2903, 4131
Auto
36.8 29%
Teleop
86.6 68%
Endgame
4.0 3%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.66
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score102.3pts
Blue projected score130.7pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample152alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -28.4
- Score range
- 81–152
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
260.1Season APEX410
19.2Auto36.8
62Teleop86.6
26Endgame4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 21 |
| teleop | 47 | 78 |
| endgame | 29 | 19 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 99 | 123 |
Result
Final score
99 – 123
Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.