Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
129.69 – 157.51
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
141 – 196
Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.2 ±11.6
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 49.88Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 25.91Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 53.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.2 ±10.7
Season APEX 87.3Event APEX -7.79Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 73.01Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 92.29Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 488, 1899, 7627
74
/ 100 compatProjected
129.7 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 488, 1899, 7627
Auto
27.8 23%
Teleop
73.3 61%
Endgame
19.3 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4173, 2522, 4089
87
/ 100 compatProjected
157.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 4173, 2522, 4089
Auto
35.2 23%
Teleop
82.0 54%
Endgame
33.7 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score129.7pts
Blue projected score157.5pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample152alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -27.8
- Score range
- 110–178
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
264.2Season APEX621.2
27.8Auto35.2
73.3Teleop82
19.3Endgame33.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 47 |
| teleop | 58 | 68 |
| endgame | 42 | 76 |
| foul | 20 | 5 |
| total | 141 | 196 |
Result
Final score
141 – 196
Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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