Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.16 – 25.39

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±12.2

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX -1.77Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -33.18Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 44.11Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.3 ±12.1

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -1.77Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 26.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 0.97Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1778, 3219, 4682

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1778, 3219, 4682

Auto

-2.4 0%

Teleop

-3.5 0%

Endgame

18.0 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5941, 9442, 9317

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5941, 9442, 9317

Auto

8.7 42%

Teleop

-6.6 0%

Endgame

18.6 90%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score9.2pts

Blue projected score25.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.2
Score range: -12–46
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 117.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.8Season APEX180.3

-2.4Auto8.7

-3.5Teleop-6.6

18Endgame18.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	21
teleop	37	32
endgame	12	11
foul	0	0
total	55	64

Result

Final score

55 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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