Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.52 – 92.7

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

9 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±12.2

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -2.13Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 9.96Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 19.69Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.3 ±11

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 12.06Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 23.42Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 57.22Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3219, 4131, 3826

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3219, 4131, 3826

Auto

11.1 40%

Teleop

18.7 67%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9317, 1294, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9317, 1294, 488

Auto

26.8 31%

Teleop

44.4 52%

Endgame

14.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score27.5pts

Blue projected score92.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.2
Score range: 3–118
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 58 vs event baseline 138.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.2Season APEX289.3

11.1Auto26.8

18.7Teleop44.4

-1.9Endgame14.9

12Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	8
teleop	3	32
endgame	2	9
foul	0	0
total	9	49

Result

Final score

9 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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