Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.92 – 202.24

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 21.6Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 122.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 104.22Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±10.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 113.25Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -3.78Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 92.77Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 4089, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 4089, 4915

Auto

50.0 21%

Teleop

144.8 60%

Endgame

47.8 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 5941, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 5941, 10079

Auto

36.9 18%

Teleop

118.7 59%

Endgame

46.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.9pts

Blue projected score202.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.7
Score range: 177–273
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 137.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX562.9

50Auto36.9

144.8Teleop118.7

47.8Endgame46.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	27
teleop	203	56
endgame	34	48
foul	5	0
total	299	131

Result

Final score

299 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts

Match videos

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