Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.25 – 205.61

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 18.36Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 118.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 101.13Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±10.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 114.36Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -2.4Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 93.65Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 4089, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 4089, 4915

Auto

47.7 20%

Teleop

138.2 59%

Endgame

48.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 5941, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 5941, 10079

Auto

36.7 18%

Teleop

119.4 58%

Endgame

48.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.3pts

Blue projected score205.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.6
Score range: 182–262
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX562.9

47.7Auto36.7

138.2Teleop119.4

48.8Endgame48.9

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	40
teleop	198	116
endgame	38	18
foul	20	0
total	325	174

Result

Final score

325 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Match videos

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