Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.21 – 198.25

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 17.07Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 117.5Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 99.64Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±10.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 112.11Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -5.11Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 91.25Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 4089, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 4089, 4915

Auto

47.0 20%

Teleop

133.9 58%

Endgame

49.2 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 5941, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 5941, 10079

Auto

34.8 18%

Teleop

113.8 58%

Endgame

49.0 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.2pts

Blue projected score198.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36
Score range: 174–258
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 133.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX562.9

47Auto34.8

133.9Teleop113.8

49.2Endgame49

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	54
teleop	172	171
endgame	46	48
foul	0	0
total	271	273

Result

Final score

271 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts

Match videos

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