Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.58 – 174.38

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±10.5

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 0.4Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 83.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 91.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±12.1

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 32.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 78.9Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 63.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3826, 4469, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 4469, 1318

Auto

25.2 16%

Teleop

87.2 54%

Endgame

49.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1899, 4911, 9317

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1899, 4911, 9317

Auto

40.0 25%

Teleop

86.7 55%

Endgame

31.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.6pts

Blue projected score174.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.2
Score range: 139–211
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 196.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.9Season APEX275.8

25.2Auto40

87.2Teleop86.7

49.8Endgame31.1

97Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	57
teleop	117	89
endgame	69	55
foul	50	5
total	250	206

Result

Final score

250 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Match videos

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