Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.91 – 228.89

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±11.1

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 36.77Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 13.45Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 139.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 4.01Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 120.75Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 104.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2903, 9442, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 9442, 948

Auto

43.1 24%

Teleop

99.0 54%

Endgame

40.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1294, 2412, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 2412, 2522

Auto

35.8 16%

Teleop

133.6 61%

Endgame

51.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.9pts

Blue projected score228.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39
Score range: 155–264
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 195.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.3Season APEX561.4

43.1Auto35.8

99Teleop133.6

40.2Endgame51.4

58Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	42
teleop	134	116
endgame	79	74
foul	20	15
total	249	247

Result

Final score

249 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 pts

Match videos

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