Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.25 – 167.72

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.8 ±8.8

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 28.52Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 151.14Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 121.59Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±10.5

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -2.72Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 80.95Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 89.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1983, 2046, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1983, 2046, 5937

Auto

81.3 28%

Teleop

154.9 53%

Endgame

57.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 4469, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 4469, 1318

Auto

24.5 16%

Teleop

76.9 50%

Endgame

52.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.3pts

Blue projected score167.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.5
Score range: 133–336
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 194.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.8Season APEX476.9

81.3Auto24.5

154.9Teleop76.9

57.1Endgame52.2

53Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	27
teleop	106	143
endgame	65	41
foul	0	10
total	252	221

Result

Final score

252 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Match videos

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