Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.53 – 169.09

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±11.6

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 47.99Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 71.9Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 46.64Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±12.1

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 30.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 77.36Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 61.61Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4180, 7461, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 7461, 488

Auto

24.7 15%

Teleop

101.3 61%

Endgame

38.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1899, 4911, 9317

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1899, 4911, 9317

Auto

45.0 30%

Teleop

82.3 55%

Endgame

23.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.5pts

Blue projected score169.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.6
Score range: 132–204
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 195.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.1Season APEX275.8

24.7Auto45

101.3Teleop82.3

38.8Endgame23.1

75Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	16
teleop	60	109
endgame	42	72
foul	0	5
total	129	202

Result

Final score

129 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Match videos

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