Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
213.21 – 210.46
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
269 – 278
Prediction missed · off by 61.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.5 ±12.1
Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 63.11Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 82.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 67.69Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±11.6
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 50.03Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 85.49Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 74.94Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8032, 9036, 3681
64
/ 100 compatProjected
213.2 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 8032, 9036, 3681
Auto
27.1 13%
Teleop
117.0 57%
Endgame
59.9 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5588, 2928, 8248
70
/ 100 compatProjected
210.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 5588, 2928, 8248
Auto
57.8 28%
Teleop
99.5 48%
Endgame
50.7 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.8
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score213.2pts
Blue projected score210.5pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 76%, blue 75%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 2.8
- Score range
- 175–248
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 547 vs event baseline 193.7.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
284.5Season APEX283
27.1Auto57.8
117Teleop99.5
59.9Endgame50.7
37Consistency65
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 89 |
| teleop | 144 | 139 |
| endgame | 82 | 45 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 269 | 278 |
Result
Final score
269 – 278
Prediction missed · off by 61.7 pts
Match videos
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