Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
250.9 – 180.72
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
139 – 123
Prediction correct · off by 84.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 10.34Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 112.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 128.04Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±12.1
Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 34.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 80.26Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 66.13Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1294, 2522, 2412
72
/ 100 compatProjected
250.9 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 1294, 2522, 2412
Auto
39.8 17%
Teleop
151.3 63%
Endgame
50.1 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1899, 4911, 9317
62
/ 100 compatProjected
180.7 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 1899, 4911, 9317
Auto
47.3 29%
Teleop
91.4 56%
Endgame
25.2 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.29
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score250.9pts
Blue projected score180.7pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 66%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 70.2
- Score range
- 146–286
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
561.4Season APEX275.8
39.8Auto47.3
151.3Teleop91.4
50.1Endgame25.2
42Consistency86
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 38 |
| teleop | 59 | 44 |
| endgame | 61 | 16 |
| foul | 0 | 25 |
| total | 139 | 123 |
Result
Final score
139 – 123
Prediction correct · off by 84.8 pts
Match videos
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