Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.9 – 171.88

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.4 ±10.5

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 39.98Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 91.7Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 142.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±11.6

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 49.38Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 73.88Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 48.62Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2903, 492, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 492, 948

Auto

53.4 20%

Teleop

149.6 56%

Endgame

62.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4180, 7461, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 7461, 488

Auto

24.5 14%

Teleop

106.1 62%

Endgame

39.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score273.9pts

Blue projected score171.9pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102
Score range: 137–309
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 194.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.4Season APEX265.1

53.4Auto24.5

149.6Teleop106.1

62.1Endgame39.2

48Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	32
teleop	106	87
endgame	45	36
foul	0	0
total	232	155

Result

Final score

232 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Match videos

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