Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.39 – 152.43

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±11.6

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 49.27Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 86.35Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 73.77Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±10.5

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -6.59Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 76.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 82.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5588, 2928, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5588, 2928, 8248

Auto

48.4 23%

Teleop

102.1 49%

Endgame

57.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 4469, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 4469, 1318

Auto

22.1 16%

Teleop

76.4 55%

Endgame

40.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.4pts

Blue projected score152.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57
Score range: 117–244
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 194.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283Season APEX476.9

48.4Auto22.1

102.1Teleop76.4

57.2Endgame40.3

57Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	43
teleop	71	69
endgame	30	102
foul	5	15
total	202	229

Result

Final score

202 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 42 pts

Match videos

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