Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.41 – 214.45

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.8 ±8.8

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 114.58Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 142.79Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 20.04Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.5 ±12.1

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 67.2Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 82.99Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 64.26Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5937, 2046, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5937, 2046, 1983

Auto

77.6 29%

Teleop

137.0 51%

Endgame

53.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3681, 9036, 8032

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3681, 9036, 8032

Auto

25.3 12%

Teleop

120.6 58%

Endgame

61.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score277.4pts

Blue projected score214.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63
Score range: 179–312
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.8Season APEX284.5

77.6Auto25.3

137Teleop120.6

53.4Endgame61

85Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	39
teleop	209	91
endgame	76	57
foul	0	15
total	388	202

Result

Final score

388 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Match videos

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