Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.18 – 233.01

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.4 ±10.5

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 43.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 87.03Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 147.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 5.48Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 121.73Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 105.8Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2903, 492, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 492, 948

Auto

56.9 21%

Teleop

146.4 55%

Endgame

65.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1294, 2412, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

233 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 2412, 2522

Auto

38.4 17%

Teleop

127.8 57%

Endgame

58.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score278.2pts

Blue projected score233pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.2
Score range: 197–314
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.4Season APEX561.4

56.9Auto38.4

146.4Teleop127.8

65.1Endgame58.2

63Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	37
teleop	103	113
endgame	12	48
foul	5	25
total	174	223

Result

Final score

174 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts

Match videos

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