Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.47 – 183.77

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 3.22Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 119.21Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 104.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±10.5

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 3.27Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 86.67Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 93.83Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 2412, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 2412, 2522

Auto

35.5 16%

Teleop

124.1 57%

Endgame

57.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 4469, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 4469, 1318

Auto

23.2 14%

Teleop

90.3 54%

Endgame

52.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.5pts

Blue projected score183.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.7
Score range: 148–262
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 198.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.4Season APEX476.9

35.5Auto23.2

124.1Teleop90.3

57.1Endgame52.2

57Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	44
teleop	155	106
endgame	67	99
foul	0	0
total	282	249

Result

Final score

282 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 pts

Match videos

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